I recently did a Market Study on The EU Taxonomy together with Marko Seppänen from The Tampere University and Ilkka Lähteenmäki from The Aalto University. Our aim was to create a real market study, the kind that indicates credible monetary value to the various businesses and scenarios emerging from the new regulation. Well, it turned out that it was not feasible to do that just yet as there was a bigger need to create a simple storyline indicating possible scenarios and implications beyond reporting and compliance. Everyone we talked with had a differing view of what business opportunities might be ahead of us, if any. Hence writing a story became a good way to initiate more valuable conversations.
Now our work has become the second most downloaded paper at SSNR (a great research paper site) in it’s category of International Institutions. Apparently, there is a tangible need for simple, helicopter view stories about sustainability, ESG and all the related stuff as people are struggling to understand their new obligations and are quite lost in contradicting details. Hence it is hard to think about new business opportunities or how to make business decisions with positive impact. Afterall, The EU Taxonomy or any other sustainability related regulation does not exist for companies to be busier reporting things. They exist so that our planet would continue to exist, and for all of us to adopt new ways to act as individuals, corporations, investors and states.
You can read our research paper here. In this blog I give you a short version, which I hope continues to initiate meaningful conversations. And that is why I have included our ever so vague monetary estimation of the arising business potential. So let's talk, this is the most important task we all have regardless of industry, role or location. Challenge us!
Sustainability, ESG, The EU Taxonomy in a Nutshell
Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) policies and frameworks are generally called sustainability. These frameworks are used for identifying, assessing, and addressing organizational objectives and activities ranging from the company’s carbon footprint and commitment to sustainability, to its workplace culture and overall approach to risks and operations.
At the global level, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement set the general sustainability agenda as well as the more specific climate agenda. Additionally, Europe has an ambition to become the first carbon neutral continent. The EU has created a European sustainable development program, The Green Deal, to promote this goal. An integral part of it is The EU Taxonomy, which is a classification system for determining whether an economic activity can be considered environmentally sustainable. It offers companies a standard that can be used to develop business activities towards more sustainable targets like lowering carbon emissions. The EU Taxonomy is backed with mandatory, public reporting.
The purpose of the EU Taxonomy is to decrease green washing and to increase transparency of activities, investment targets and direct funding to sustainable business. This is considered an effective way to drive and force activities supporting environmental objectives. Therefore, financial institutions have been given an active role and responsibility to evaluate or accept sustainability reports as a mandatory part of their funding decisions. The EU Taxonomy also creates a trustworthy basis for sustainable financial investments. This combination assures that non-sustainable activities will not be funded or invested in the near future and sustainable activities will have a funding cost and structure based on their level of sustainability.
The EU taxonomy already applies to large companies (public companies with 500+ employees) and the financial sector. The assessment and reporting of business compliance with the EU taxonomy has been mandatory for them since January 2022. The next step is expected to take force in 2024 when also small and medium-sized companies (250+ employees) will join the EU taxonomy reporting. Later, the reporting will be mandatory for all companies and potentially also households. It is expected to become a global benchmark, but it needs to be acknowledged that there are other classification systems alive as well.
With the help of the EU Taxonomy, a company's economic activities or operations are evaluated through six environmental goals. The company's actions must not harm any of the environmental goals, and in addition, certain minimum protective measures must be met. The six goals are: 1. climate change mitigation, 2. climate change adaptation, 3. sustainable use of water and marine resources, 4. transition to circular economy, waste prevention and recycling, 5. pollution prevention and control, and 6. protection of heathy ecosystems.
Business Opportunities and Some Conclusions
Without digging into the potential scenarios presented in the research, it is clear that we are at the brink of a major systemic shift. This shift is necessary for saving our planet, and it brings a massive number of opportunities for business innovation. Even in the short term, assuming a 10% increase in market size, the combined global market potential for enterprise software and AI could be 75 billion EUR. For consulting and compliance related businesses the potential could be 11,5 billion EUR. Both are mainly to support companies to do what they need to do today due to The EU Taxonomy: regulatory reporting, data creation, capturing and validation, compliance, analytics, management systems and data platforms, process automation and just getting the infrastructure in place or making it cater for the Green Deal. No major new innovation yet, but an essential base giving companies understanding of their impact.
The EU Taxonomy as a part of the European Green Deal and ESG at large are presenting both a carrot and a stick for people and companies to move towards sustainable activities. Regulatory reporting and decreasing funding are a strong push. Assuring financing for green and transitional activities are a fantastic way to incentivize companies to do the right thing. Simultaneously sustainability has become a major global consumer trend increasing demand and brand value of companies hearing the call. The business potential for innovation is almost unimaginable. Some of the products and services we use today needs to be replaced. New solutions fighting the climate change needs to be invented in every industry. There are only glimpses of the new normal visible today. Hence assuming a modest 13,5 billion EUR business potential leads us to a 100 billion euro business opportunity for sustainability. And we are perfectly aware, that this is a ridiculous number, but it is also safe to say that the business potential is enormous.
Unrealistic wishful thinking, oh YES. The EU Taxonomy does not get implemented in a vacuum; there are several contradicting forces taking place simultaneously. Some strengthening the movement, others slowing it down. The main hurdle might be the current corporate strategies and hunt for quarterly earnings as sustainable options are likely to be less profitable in the short term. This can slow down transformational innovation, which in turn is necessary for long term impact. Today sustainability is also often considered only as a compliance topic or an investment gimmick. As long as The EU Taxonomy is seen as a regulatory reporting task, its goals or market potential will not materialize. Systemic shifts also require a mindset shift, which is often harder than the technical changes.
The most important enabling element for The EU Taxonomy and the Green Deal is data. And everything around data: creating, verifying, distributing, sharing, analyzing, reporting, and hopefully also understanding and acting based on the insights it provides. Data is essential in changing the attitude and helping us all make better choices. My great hope is that companies would come together around open, shared data, which would support them all in running their business in new ways. This data need is so massive that nobody can sufficiently act on it alone. Therefore, this is a call for cooperation, even those who are driven by profit alone, should see the opportunity!